- The local authorities that contain the highest number of members include Pendle, Burnley, Melton, Charnwood and Barnsley.
- Key regional areas of ‘membership strength’ are Yorkshire, and the Midlands
- Far right members tend to concentrate most heavily in areas that are urban, characterised by economic insecurity and where average education levels are low. Far right membership is particularly likely in areas where there are large numbers of residents employed in the manufacturing sector. For every one unit increase in wards of those who are employed in manufacturing, there is a 43% increase in membership (while controlling for other social and economic conditions). The results also suggest that long-term unemployment is not a key driver of far right membership, but rather it is citizens who are employed and in financial precarious positions that are the most susceptible to join far right groups
- In terms of ethnic diversity, the findings confirm those of earlier studies: membership is correlated with the presence of large Muslim communities in the local area. This is consistent with findings on far right voting, and suggests that perceived threats from culturally distinct and economically deprived Muslim communities is an important factor to explaining support for the far right. However – and also consistent with work on far right voting – it finds that the presence of non-Muslim Asians has no significant impact on membership while membership is lower in areas where there are large numbers of Black British citizens. At broad level, this is further evidence that anti-Muslim prejudice has become a key driver of support for the far right, and that simply describing these groups as ‘anti-immigrant’ glosses a more nuanced picture.
- Membership is significantly higher in local authorities where the BNP succeeded in winning a council seat, and has established local branches since 2000. While the BNP is now in decline, this suggests that where the far right is active and establishes a local presence its recruitment efforts are more successful
- There is evidence of a ‘legacy effect’ – membership of the contemporary far right is significantly higher (17% higher) in local authorities where the old National Front (NF) was active in the 1970s, and while holding other social, economic and political factors constant. This would suggest that the modern far right has continued to draw on older networks of supporters within specific areas of the country, and that specific local areas in England are providing a context that is more favourable than others toward anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim campaigns. It might also suggest that areas where the far right is currently most active (for example the EDL), are likely to provide favourable conditions for the far right over coming decades.
I am in Stockholm to help launch the Swedish action plan to safeguard democracy against violence-promoting extremism.
The Swedes are unique in their approach – they are preventing violent extremism not by focus on what they don’t want to happen, but on what they positively want to see happen instead – strong and vibrant democracy. It makes a refreshing change after efforts from many other European countries that have failed to get the buy-in of vast swathes of the communities that need to be engaged.
The action plan has six aims:
- Enhancing awareness of democratic values
- Increasing knowledge about violence-promoting extremism
- Developing the structures for cooperation
- Preventing individuals from joining violent extremist groups and supporting defectors
- Countering the breeding grounds for ideologically motivated violence
- Deepening international cooperation
It was launched today to an audience of 200 municipality workers, social workers, community activists, and non-governmental organisations, and there is a real appetite from Sweden to learn from experiences in the rest of Europe and in turn spread the lessons – good and bad – that they learn as they operationalise the plan in the coming months and years.
I have co-written a piece in a new report about the ‘new radical right’ in Europe, which analyses latest trends among violent and non-violent right wing movements. There are excellent pieces by Vidhya Ramalingam from the Institute for Strategic Dialogue and Dr Matthew Goodwin of Nottingham University. The piece I have co-written pulls out some of the key policy recommendations.